The Long Range Forecasters  

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LATEST STORM NEWS UPDATE Sat 1st Dec 20:00hr GMT

The storm now approaching is set to track on Sunday 2nd Dec through England and into the South of the North Sea and Denmark and bring storms, damaging winds and exceptionally heavy seas through parts of a wide area including Ireland, Wales, England (Central, SouthWest, South, SouthEast and East Anglia), North France (especially Cherbourg Peninsula and Normandy) , Belgium, Netherlands and Denmark. TRAVEL is best avoided

These events are in line with WeatherAction's long range forecast for the second - 'Southerly track' storm(s) in the extended time period to 1st/2nd Dec and the original warnings spelt out in WeatherActions long range forecast first issued 11months ago (see below for details**)

At time of writing (20:00hrs GMT Dec 1st); Storms and Exceptional sea swell driven by storm force (or above) winds was and is developing off the West British Isles.  Massive waves - 'the highest around Ireland's coastline for several years' - have come or are expected (see BBC warning below). This confirms WeatherAction's forecasted 'Extremely stormy sea conditions and alarming build up of swell' - an exact quote from WeatherAction's first forecast 11 months ago for around this period (originally late November but timing updated in medium range).

Severe gales (Force 9) and Storms (Force10) are forecasted in short range for sea and coasts and various levels of near gales, gales or severe gales inland. However in view of recent developments on the Sun and Sun-Earth links (++see below) and our forecasted turbulent and often thundery nature of the situation higher top winds are likely and local tornado developments possible in places inland and on coasts / at sea. This means inland and coastal top gusts in places in the range 60mph (100kph) to 90mph (145kph) are likely and higher gust speeds are perhaps possible eg 100mph (160kph) at sea or on exposed headlands or in local thunder/ tornado developments (the highest risk of tornado events is in Southern England).

The most vulnerable places are the coasts of Ireland, Wales, SW England, and the Cherbourg Peninsula but both sides of the Channel including the South coast of England and Normandy and the North Sea coasts of East Anglia, Belgium, Netherlands, Germany and Denmark will also suffer dangerous winds and heavy seas.

Threats to sea defences remain for the Bristol channel, and the south coast of England, and potentially Flanders and Netherlands due to heavy seas although the add-on by the normal highest tides will be less than 5 days ago because the moon's phase is weaker. A strong North wind will come in the tail of this storm system which with continuing heavy seas can pose brief threats around the south North sea which should be watched .

=> See BBC website for warning of 45ft (15m) swell off Ireland:

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/northern_ireland/7120574.stm

=> For Sea swell warnings - especially for coasts of Cornwall (40ft = 13m likely) , Bristol Channel, South England, Cherbourg peninsula, Normandy, Belgium, Netherlands, NW Germany, Denmark see:

http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-MSW-Surf-Charts/1/

=> For wind forecast charts: http://magicseaweed.com/UK-Ireland-MSW-Surf-Charts/1/wind/in/

=> For latest weather maps: http://www.westwind.ch/?page=ukmb  and click on UKMO(Wz) (also map below)

=> For current England & Wales Flood river and coast warnings  / watches  ( At present 1st Dec, these concern heavy rain / rivers and one for sea - Dorset coast West of Porland Bill)  ) 

 http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/subjects/flood/floodwarning/ 

Short range forecast map for  Sun 2nd Dec 12hrs

++ What is the sun doing?

Recent changes in Sun-Earth linkages and events on the sun support our forecasts. There have been three Coronal Mass Ejections ('CMEs') on 29th / 30th December++ in which sections of the corona of the sun blast into space and make important effects in the 'Solar Wind' - the million mph / 2 million kph plus rush of particles from the Sun. ++ see http://www.sidc.be/cactus/out/diffmovie/cme0008.html 

WHAT IS COMING NEXT?

Two more serious storm periods are forecast by WeatherAction for December:- Around 5th-9th and around 23rd to 26th. The 23rd-26th is likley to include storms as severe or more severe than this one.

** For Information - WeatherAction Detailed November 30day ahead forecast - very similar to 11month ahead:  

 (NB  The original 11month ahead forecast time period of 'around 24th to 28th Nov' saw a storm at the start on the first (Northerly) track but not on this 'Southerly'  track. However on 24th Nov we extended (into the next also very unsettled forecast period) to Dec1st/2nd the time in which a storm of this Southerly type track was likley.   

 [ 24 –27^th (later in Scandinavia)] : Very heavy rain local floods, major storms and thunder. Probably worst in West / Central / South Brit Isles. This is (near) the 304th anniversary of the devastating tempest of 26/27November (modern calendar dates) 1703.    Likely track (80% confident) of damage eastwards: Holland, Denmark, N Germany, South Sweden and parts of Baltic States and Finland.

Extremely stormy sea conditions and alarming build up of swell. Sea defences in South and West particularly Severn estuary and parts of South coast likely to be breached. Note full Moon 23/24^th – hence with winds flood tides are likely. Probably all sea crossings closed. A North sea storm surge not ruled out.  An unusually powerful series of troughs, deep lows / frontal wave depressions and sub-lows and thunderstorms sweep across Ireland, Wales and England then Eastwards.  Aurora likely.  Lightning and tornado event risk VERY HIGH.  Winds: Generally SouthWesterly/Westerly or cyclonic, gales / storms, hurricane force likely in exposed places.

WeatherAction Forecasted approximate track for this storm system 

-        second (red) region in right hand map below issued 15 Nov:

WHOSE STORM IS THIS?

Some have asked if this storm which is so far following our forecast storm track and sea swell and early winds pretty swell is "our's" (ie WeatherAction's) or not - since it is late compared with earlier forecasts. We say yes (while not claiming to really own anything in nature) it is "our's" and its late. Apologies to anyone who was banking on the timing but we are still advancing this science (from 11months ahead). If it isn't our's then whose is it? 

=> ** WHY  AN EXTENDED PERIOD?  (from previous release) There is  NO CHANGE in the basic weather events and dangers in the forecast issued 11 months ago and subsequent updates of detail but the present weather period is combining with the next weather period which was also forecast to include vigorous Lows.   For this reason the main action now looks set to appear around the end of the original 24-28th period and into the next one - 28/29th to 1st Dec (or just beyond). The reasons for this are probably to do with merging of solar wind (charged particles coming from the sun) effects as they are modulated by magnetic linkages with the Earth,  and changes in solar wind speed.  WeatherAction's time periods are probabalistic concepts centred on the most likely timing of events (in cases where the time period refers to events) and with duration expected to include the events 85% of the time or better. This means however that sometimes events will spill over boundaries (as in this case) or happen just outside the time periods

Example Note on time periods and timings. WeatherAction weather periods refer to periods of a general weather type within which weather events referred to have the highest probability (85%) of occurring. There will be a proportion of occasions (about one in 6) when the main events happen just outside these time periods. As an example see November British Isles main forecast page 4 (for Atlantic Tropical Storms and WestNorth Pacific Typhoons). There the October Typhoon Formation and Active Development (FAD) forecast was assessed. Of the 7 forecast FAD periods all 7 gave typhoons; and with DATE defined as the date of the lowest pressure (deepest, date D)., 6 were within the defined FAD periods and one had D one day early.