The Long
Range Forecasters
Delta House, 175-177 Borough High
Street. London SE1 1HR Tel 
+44(0)20 7939 9946
URGENT AND IMPORTANT SEVERE WEATHER
WARNING
LATEST STORM
NEWS UPDATE Thurs 29th Nov
2007
-
as issued 28 Nov with forecasted storm track through
England as issued 15Nov pasted in plus extra
advice .
To Emergency Services, Risk managers, media
and WeatherAction forecast users
You are welcome to circulate
this warning as you may require
Our
apologies if for circulation list reasons you receive this document
twice
THE SERIOUS
DAMAGING STORM(s) which
WeatherAction forecast IS COMING in the
extended (to Dec 1st/2nd**)
time-period we issued .
(**for reasons for extension involves new solar
activity and sun-earth links see below)
IN ACCORDANCE WITH THE 'TWO
WAVES OF STORMS' FORECAST FOR THIS (extended) PERIOD -
reproduced below from 15Nov update on www.lowefo.com -
THE MAIN STORM(s) TO COME EXPECTED TO TAKE APPROXIMATELY THE
FORECASTED SOUTHERLY TRACK FOR THE 'SECOND' WAVE THROUGH
ENGLAND INTO DENMARK/SOUTH NORWAY AND THEREFORE BRING THE
MOST DAMAGING WINDS INCLUDING LOCAL TORNADOES TO SOUTHERN ENGLAND. The
Netherlands and Belgium, although at the edge of the main forecasted track are
on its Southern side and also likely to suffer damaging
winds.
Watch short range
TV forecasts for short range information and bear in mind that standard
meteorology is likely to underestimate the strength of winds and the speed of
development of events in this period.
This pressure and situation puts the
potential storms comparable with
the most damaging storms of 1990 and 1987 in the UK and Europe.
Precautionary measures should be taken and warnings issued to the
public to avoid unnecessary exposure to danger by travel in the danger
zones/countries especially as listed in the earlier warning
below.
The Forecasted
approximate track - second (red) region in right hand map below issued 15
Nov:
These
maps (eg below for build
up 29 Nov) and other links via www.lowefo.com
indicate what was forecast is now becoming
reality.
At the time of writing (25th Nov
22.00hrs), deep low pressures are
developing - as forecasted -
over the Atlantic and short range standard forecasts
show 'dartboard' (exceptionally deep - eg 955mb*) lows. Predicted solar
effects make the present period one of rapid and accelerating weather change
for the whole of the north Atlantic region from Greenland to St Petersburg and
from North Norway to Belgium which will often
get ahead of standard meteorology
forecasts.
We continue to forecast
the British Isles and the North Sea area are likely to be hit (90% confidence)
by a major storm(s) and associated substorms including possible tornado
type events - particularly in England -
starting to
show from Weds/Thursday Nov
28th/29th onwards and this or
these storm systems to then move into Scandinavia in an now extended
period to 1st/2nd December ( ** for reasons for extension see below)
and have important impacts in:
Scotland, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Wales, England, Norway, Sweden,
Denmark, NW Germany, North Netherlands, Belgium, North Poland and the Baltic
States.
The most dangerous events associated with this now
extended period 23Nov to 1st/2nd Dec are set to come
=> The warnings
of dangerous weather stands:
bringing serious wind damage and
disruption of travel by land, sea and air -
as advised in forecasts issued 11 months ago and updated in detail 29 Oct and
15 Nov particularly for Britain but
anywhere in the core storm tracks especially Scandinavia,
and threats to sea defences in the Severn estuary and
parts of the South coast of England.
=> info added 29 Nov=> THE
CORE TRACK FOR THIS EVENT IS FOR THE SECOND EVENT IN THIS (extended) PERIOD (the
first having taken place on time and track on 23rd/24th) AND FOLLOWS THE MORE
SOUTHERLY TRACK THROUGH ENGLAND AND INTO DENMARK ON THE 'DOUBLE STORM FORECAST
TRACKS ISSUED ON 15th NOV - visit www.lowefo.com
AS IS NORMAL FOR SUCH TRACKS SOUTHERN ENGLAND WILL BE
WORST HIT.
=> A North Sea storm
surge is also likely on the tail of these storm events - ie early
December. The
lunar tides will be lower then so their
contribution to the threat to sea defences in eastern England and the
Netherlands will be lessened -
but should NOT be
ignored.
=> Standard Meteorology forecasts as on TV will
UNDERESTIMATE the intensity and speed of developments in this period even from
24 or 12 hours ahead .
=>
There is a HIGH RISK of thunderstorm and local tornado developments in
these storm systems in
England.
=> ** WHY AN EXTENDED PERIOD?
There is NO CHANGE in the basic
weather events and dangers in the forecast issued 11 months ago and
subsequent updates of detail but the present weather period is combining with the next
weather period which was also forecast to include vigorous Lows. For this reason the main
action now looks set to
appear around the end of
the original 24-28th period and into the next one - 28/29th to 1st Dec (or just beyond). The reasons for this
are probably to do with merging of solar wind (charged particles coming from
the sun) effects as they are modulated by magnetic linkages with
the Earth, and changes in solar wind
speed. WeatherAction's time periods are probabalistic
concepts centred on the most likely timing of events (in cases where the
time period refers to events) and with duration expected to include the events
85% of the time or better. This means however that sometimes events will spill
over boundaries (as in this case) or happen just outside the time
periods
Example Note on time
periods and timings.
WeatherAction weather periods refer to periods of a general weather type
within which weather events referred to have the highest
probability (85%) of occurring. There will be a proportion of
occasions (about one in 6) when the main events happen just outside these time
periods. As an example see November British Isles main forecast page
4 (for Atlantic Tropical Storms and WestNorth Pacific Typhoons). There the
October Typhoon Formation and Active Development (FAD) forecast was assessed.
Of the 7 forecast FAD periods all 7 gave typhoons; and with DATE defined as the date of the
lowest pressure (deepest, date D)., 6
were within the defined FAD periods and one had D one day
early.
