The Long Range Forecasters  

 Delta House, 175-177 Borough High Street. London SE1 1HR  Tel +44(0)20 7939 9946  

 E: piers@weatheraction.com   From: Piers Corbyn 07958713320 (or office above)   

 www.weatheraction.com or for Europe www.lowefo.com   

LATEST STORM NEWS UPDATE Weds 28th Nov 2007 

 URGENT AND IMPORTANT SEVERE WEATHER WARNING

 

To Emergency Services, Local Authority Risk managers, media and WeatherAction forecast users 

You are welcome to circulate this warning as you may require 

Our apologies if for circulation list reasons you receive this document twice  

THE SERIOUS DAMAGING STORM which WaetherAction forecast IS COMING in the modified (extended) time-period we issued

 

for latest information visit WeatherAction's LOng range WEather FOrecast European website www.lowefo.com  

 

For latest maps please visit:

http://www.westwind.ch/?page=ukmb  

At the time of writing (25th Nov 22.00hrs), deep low pressures are developing -as forecasted - over the Atlantic and short range standard forecasts show 'dartboard' (exceptionally deep - eg 955mb*) lows. Predicted solar effects make the present period one of rapid and accelerating weather change for the whole of the north Atlantic region from Greenland to St Petersburg and from North Norway to Belgium which will often get ahead of standard meteorology forecasts.

We continue to forecast the British Isles and the North Sea area are likely to be hit (90% confidence) by a major storm(s) and associated substorms including possible tornado type events -  particularly in England - starting to show from Weds/Thursday Nov 28th/29th onwards and this or these storm systems to then move into Scandinavia in an now extended period to 1st/2nd December (for reasons  for extension see below) and have important impacts in (parts of), in order of danger: Scotland, Northern Ireland, Ireland, Wales, England, Norway, Sweden, Denmark, NW Germany, North Netherlands,  Belgium,  North Poland and the Baltic States. (This is the same order of danger as in all previous issued forecasts and updates)  (Belgium aded later) 

(*This pressure and situation puts the potential storms comparable with the most damaging storms of 1990 and 1987 in the UK and Europe)

 

WeatherAction's warning for this period of likely storm events to begin from November 23rd was confirmed by the significant Low with gales in Scotland and the North Sea on 23rd November and continuing gales or strong north winds in the North Sea and Norway, Sweden, Denmark, Netherlands, Belgium, Germany and Poland in the following days as that low tracked/tracks  through Norway and Sweden into the Baltic and Baltic States along the storm track shown in WeatherAction's update map issued 15th Nov.  

The raised sea levels in the North Sea from the storm surge driven by this North wind have given (24th / 25th Nov) Coastal gale / severe gale warnings and flood warnings / Watches in England and Holland

 

In England there  was one flood warning and 21 flood watches  on the east coast (24/25 Nov)  - see:  http://www.environment-agency.gov.uk/subjects/flood/floodwarning/  (for current link; or see footnote for warning as on 24/25Nov)

 

In Holland warnings of gales and severe gales and flood watches (from 23:00hrs Sat 24th  http://pietpaulusma.sbs6.nl/piets-blog-algemeen/stormkansen-nemen-toe.html

 

(This para updated from before : ) Some Dutch leading forecasters on TV (channel1) on Saturday 24th had been rudely denouncing the WeatherAction forecast as 'nonsense' and barely 6 hours later a flood watch was announced for the Dutch coast and notably stronger winds than they had previously stated appeared! This however is a small error compared to what is to come.

The most dangerous events associated with this now extended period 23Nov to 1st/2nd Dec are set to come

 

 => The warnings of dangerous weather stands: bringing serious wind damage and disruption of travel by land, sea and air - as advised in forecasts issued 11 months ago and updated in detail 29 Oct and 15 Nov particularly for Britain but anywhere in the core storm tracks especially Scandinavia, and threats to sea defences in the Severn estuary and parts of the South coast of England.

 

 => A North Sea storm surge is also likely on the tail of these storm events - ie early December.  The  lunar tides will be lower then so their contribution to the threat to sea defences in eastern England and the Netherlands will be lessened  - but should NOT be ignored. 

 

=> Standard Meteorology forecasts as on TV will UNDERESTIMATE the intensity and speed of developments in this period even from 24 or 12 hours ahead

 

 => WHY?  There is no change in the basic weather events and dangers in the forecast issued 11 months ago and subsequent updates of detail but the present weather period is combining with the next weather period which was also forecast to include vigorous Lows. For this reason the main action now looks set to appear around the end of the original 24-28th period and into the next one - 28/29th to 1st Dec (or just beyond). The reasons for this are probably to do with merging of solar wind (charged particles coming from the sun) effects as they are modulated by magnetic linkages with the Earth.

 

{Note on time periods and timings. WeatherAction weather periods refer to periods of a general weather type within which weather events referred to have the highest probability (85%) of occurring. There will be a proportion of occasions (about one in 6) when the main events happen just outside these time periods. As an example see November British Isles main forecast page 4 (for Atlantic Tropical Storms and WestNorth Pacific Typhoons). There the October Typhoon Formation and Active Development (FAD) forecast was assessed. Of the 7 forecast FAD periods all 7 gave typhoons; and with DATE defined as the date of the lowest pressure (deepest, date D)., 6 were within the defined FAD periods and one had D one day early.