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New Pressures Building
Beneath California Caldera

YOWUSA.COM, 14-November-03
Dave Wright

…Continued

Long Valley's Restless Past

About 730,000 years ago, the caldera in Long Valley appeared due to a catastrophic eruption and forced 150 cubic miles of magma to the surface.  The volume of ash is comparable to the caldera-forming eruptions at Yellowstone and far exceeds the volume ash of stratovolcanoes. 

Continued volcanism formed a resurgent dome within 100,000 years after the caldera formed. 

Volcano World, 13-November-2003
Long Valley Caldera and Mono-Inyo Craters Volcanic Field, California<<

Long Valley's Most Recent Activity

The most recent activity in the Long Valley Caldera was at Mono Lake between 1720 and 1850 A.D. where a dome emerged on the lake floor creating Paoha Island. Then, a sequence of earthquakes in 1978 caused concerns of a possible eruption at the Mono-Inyo Craters within the caldera. This earthquake activity ended in mid-May of 1980 when four 6.0 earthquakes rocked the area within a 2-day period.  Volcanologists interpreted all this activity, and the increase of fumarole activity, as an indication of magma movement beneath the Long Valley Caldera.

Then, in 1994, 75 acres of forest within the Long Valley Caldera began to die off.  Geologists investigated and found the soil contained 30-96% concentrations of carbon dioxide. 

Volcano World, 13-November-2003
Long Valley Caldera and Mono-Inyo Craters
Volcanic Field, California

In 1994, geologists investigated an area of 75 acres (30 hectare) that contained dying forest.  They studied the gas in the soil and found carbon dioxide concentrations of 30-96%.  Additional details are provided on a USGS homepage.  The Survey continues to monitor the caldera and provides current information on the Long Valley homepage.  <<

Current carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions at Horseshoe Lake are from 50-150 tons per day. These high levels of CO2 has remained high since 1996 and since there is not enough information from other gas discharge areas the USGS can not draw any conclusions about future changes at this time.

USGS, Long Valley Observatory, 13-November-2003
Carbon Dioxide and Helium Discharge from Mammoth Mountain

Aerial view of Horseshoe Lake and Mammoth Mountain.  A large area of trees killed by carbon dioxide emissions is visible near the northern (top) shore of the lake.  See tree-kill map for a map showing the locations of the carbon dioxide emission sites around Mammoth Mountain.

Seismic activity during the 21^st Century, in the form of earthquake swarms, has also continued to be evident within the Long Valley area.

Area of Probable Eruption

Volcanic activity over the past 5,000 years suggests that the next eruption in the Long Valley area will probably happen along the Mono-Inyo volcanic chain. Such emissions of volcanic gas, as well as earthquake swarms, ground deformation (the resurgent dome), and CO2 gas emissions, commonly precede volcanic eruptions.

USGS, 15-December-2000
Future Eruptions in California's Long Valley Area—What's Likely?

Long Valley Caldera and the Mono-Inyo Craters chain form a large volcanic complex in eastern California that has had persistent earthquake activity and ground uplift in recent decades.  Volcanoes have been active in the area for millions of years, and future eruptions are certain to occur.  When the next eruption in the area does occur, it will most likely be small and from a site in the Mono-Inyo chain.

Long Valley Outlook

Now, we are witness to record-breaking solar activity that, in the history of modern man, is triggering observable, and possible catastrophic, volcanic and seismic events throughout the world.  In our good old U.S. of A, we are seeing, with focused attention, at our own volcanic and seismic events in the form of the Yellowstone and Long Valley Calderas. Events at Long Valley seem to be mirroring the events in Yellowstone.  Increased USGS observations and monitoring in both Long Valley and Yellowstone seem to validate this.  Recent seismic and CO2 monitoring data indicates that both Yellowstone and Long Valley are a big concern at the USGS.  Yet, the USGS is trying to quell public concerns on Yellowstone but is disregarding events at Long Valley.  Every indication shows that Long Valley should be just as much a threat as Yellowstone.

The USGS also states that, "as long as volcanic unrest (including earthquake swarms, ground deformation, and CO2 gas emissions) continues in the Long Valley area, the chances of an eruption occurring in the near future will remain somewhat increased."

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